Friday, October 23, 2020

[Karex 5247- 又要套人!? 还是这次来真的?] - 听见股市


*在Karex宣布进军手套行业之前,股价一度从RM 0.580暴涨到RM 1.20,短短三天涨了100%,引起了投资者的瞩目。 难道是有人未卜先知,事先得知Karex进军手套的消息?就算是,手套真的如此神奇能让一家经历了3年沧桑的公司起死回生,还是另有乾坤呢?*

*今天带读者分析一只沉睡已久的卧龙-Karex, 但谈的并非刚新进军的手套,而是老本行安全套*
Karex简介
- 世界上最大的安全套制造商,世界上5个安全套就有1个是出之于它。
- 可生产出60种sizes的安全套,其他竞争对手只有2-3 sizes。
- 计划在2021 年达到80%自动化生产(Automation)
- 主要业务分为3类
1)Commercial (OEM)
-supply给其他安全套品牌商 – DUREX,LIFESTYLE & TRUSTEX,赚幅相对低。
- 占2019 Revenue的49%
2) Tender
-supply给各国政府和组织以防止艾滋病和实行人口控制政策,赚幅相对低。
-占2019 Revenue的34%
3) OBM
-Karex的自家安全套品牌 “One Condom”, “Carex”和“INNO” ,赚幅较高。
-占2019年Revenue的17% (2016年只有5%)
行业护城河
1)手套和安全套都属于医疗器具,需要得到官方认证。手套属于FDA Class 1 Medical Device (FDA registration),程序较简单,安全套则属于FDA Class 2 Medical Device (FDA clearance) , 需要经过较严格的检验。 也就是说新厂家要进军安全套行业比手套行业还要难。
2)Too big (important) to fail,Karex拥有全球安全套20% Market Share,行业地位举足轻重,近来的全球安全套缺货很大程度是受到了Karex在MCO期间停产和50%的营运期导致的。如果Karex停止生产,全球将陷入安全套荒。
以上2个条件巩固了Karex的市场地位,形成行业护城河。
溢价能力
OEM和Tender确实能给公司带来稳定的营业额,但缺点就是赚幅偏低。为了摆脱寄人篱下的命运,Karex 2014完成收购Global Protection Corp.,开始经营自家安全套品牌- ONE CONDOM。近年来,透过各种创意的宣传手法E.g. Nasi Lemak, Durian 等口味和网络红人宣传等,打响名堂。如今,OBM业务的Revenue Contribution已经从2016年的5% 增加到2020年的20%,老板接下来的目标是50%。拥有自家品牌就意味着更高的赚幅(Profit Margin)和溢价能力,这点在最新的季度报告更是显而易见。
Karex的寒冬
Karex在2016的盈利为RM 67mil,但过后就迎来了连续4年盈利下跌,股价也从高点RM 3.00一路狂泻至2019年头的RM 0.40低点,成为了被投资者唾弃的仙股, 我们在2018 AGM也看到不少股东地责问老板,但老板的从容回答令我们深感佩服。
是什么原因导致了Karex长达4年的寒冬呢?
1) 2015 10 月 中国正式宣布结束30多年的一胎政策,两胎政策,并积极开展应对人口老龄化行动,导致安全套需求大跌。
2) 2018 年美国特朗普特朗普大砍全球健康和开发项目预算(Foreign Aid Budget),艾滋病等疾病的防治工作陷入停滞。
两大利空消息,直击Karex旗下两大业务 – Tender & OEM。
2020年疫情带动下Karex咸鱼翻生?
1) 需求方面
全球各个国家为了控制疫情,纷纷实行限制令(Lock Down),人们呆在家的时间就长了,在没有经济能力和娱乐的情况下,自然而然就会寻找一些免费的兴奋(SEXY time)。安全套和情趣用品的全球销量更是有暴增情况。这种情况就发生在日本,美国, Ethopia, Australia,印度等。Karex在马来西亚的Online Sales更是起了整整700%。
但我们认为还是有的人是“不戴套”的。这种情况也会牵引到另一个社会问题- Baby Boom或Unwanted Baby。 以新加坡为例,过去4个月怀孕妇女增加了两到三成,而且多数都不是第一次怀孕,有可能出现Unwant Babies。那一年后,在全球经济不稳定情况下,人们是否还敢继续生育呢? 整体来看,如果Baby boom发生的话,国家政府有是否会坐视不理呢?所以, 相信在家庭和国家层面来看,“避孕”将会是迟早的课题。
2) 供应短缺
由于Covid 19 Lock Down的关系,导致市场供应链断裂,导致 全球安全套供应短缺,随之而来的就是ASP水涨船高。
而且目前安全套市场正面临着史无前例的Consolidation。小型厂商正面对OEM市场赚溢低,缺乏自动化,和Social Audit的压力,难以生存。这对身为最大厂商和拥有自家牌子(OBM)的Karex绝对有利,是争取Market Share的大好机会。
在需求暴增和供应短缺的大环境下,再加上自家安全套品经已成熟,这一次是Karex扬眉吐气,更是在股东们面前挽回颜面的大好时机! 如果你是老板, 你能不竭尽所能吗?所以听见股市还蛮期待接下来的AGM。
早前2018参加过Karex AGM后,我们一度担心Karex创造自家牌子OneCondom是否会因此得罪Durex。但事后,看来我们多心了,现在Durex和Karex,到底是谁怕谁呢?Durex绝对是深入民心的品牌,但还是需要Karex和其他供应商供应安全套, 相反的,Karex的ONE CONDOM从头到尾都是自家一手包办。巴菲特曾说过,要投资就投资在一个能为竞争对手造成威胁的公司。所以试问现在到底是哪一家公司为竞争对手制造了更大的威胁呢?
此文章只供教育题材和参考,而不构成任何的买卖建议,买卖请自负!

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Johotin是否能逆势而上?

贸易战,华为事件,油价滑落,美联储加息,美国政治不稳定等负面因数导致2018年下半年的股市除了动荡还是动荡。
所谓“穷则变,变则通,通则久”,本地老字号锡罐制造商Johotin,2011成功进军乳制品市场,为公司创造了另一个辉煌。面对目前的荆棘之路,又是否能逆势而上呢?
Johotin
- 成立于1973年,并于2003年10月31日上市。

-本地老字号锡罐制造商,但制罐业务已饱和,2011年收购Able Dairies进军乳制品业务,以多元化业务,并且让制罐业务和乳制品业务达到协同效益(乳制品大多是罐装的)。如今乳制品业务已经成为Johotin的主打业务,占公司总业务约70%。

-Johotin的乳制品以Able的品牌销售。

原材料-镀锡Tinplate和奶粉Skimmed Milk Powder

-竞争对手OneCan, KianJoo。

Company Structure

制罐业
制造用于糖果,食用油,油漆,菠萝等的锡包装,同时包括锡板的印刷服务

- 主要供应本地市场

- 锡罐是长久储存食品包装最佳材料,难以代替。

- 原料本地供应商 Perstima(站其公司10%左右的销售),进口就从中国和印尼。

乳制品业务

- 生产浓缩(condensed)和冷凝(evaporated)淡奶产品(both in-house & OEM)和奶粉。

-在 Teluk Panglima Garang的工厂产量为80,000 tonnes/year,目前Fully utilised。


- 2014年为了迎合乳制品的需求,Johotin开始扩充产能,增设新厂和货仓。2017年工厂已经竣工,新的生产线能够继续为公司带来更高的生产效率,并提高其价钱竞争力。专生产奶粉的新厂一年可生产60,000 tonnes,目前使用率为25%-30%,Johotin接下来会专注争取订单以填满使用率。

70%营业额出口到Asia, Central America, Europe and Africa.

- 市场定位: 由于中高收入市场较难与市场龙头Nestle 和F&N竞争,Johotin专攻中低收入市场(如批发到在乡村地区的Mini Market和杂货店),出口方面目前专注第三世界国家如Africa。


-Johotin认购Able Dairies Mexico联营公司40%股权可算是低风险且明智的投资。不但可省下一些出口市场的运费,同时也为公司要进军美国市场增添了条件。墨西哥是Free Trade Zone而且比直接在南美设厂来得便宜。墨西哥的新厂预计会在2019年3月被启用,每年产能达80,000 tonnes。据了解,新厂投入运作后,立即可达到收支平衡(40%使用率),因为有来自墨西哥、中美洲以及美国现有客户的订单。墨西哥新厂投运后,可释放大马厂房的20%能,管理层也有信心即刻填补这额外的产能。


亮点
- 低债务公司,Johotin目前的Net Cash为RM 86 mil,进可攻退可守(尤其是在最近市场动荡的非常时刻。)

- 派息率强,过去5年的Dividend Payout为60%左右。加上公司接下来应该不会有太大的Capex,相信接下来有机会会调高派息。

-过去5年的ROE为10%左右。

- 奶粉市场的CAGR高达7%至8%




风险
- Johotin的原料(Tinplates和Skimmed Milk Powder)的价格浮动会直接冲击公司赚幅,更是导致2017财年盈利比理想的主因)。虽然公司可以将价格转嫁给消费者,但是会有大约3至6个月的Time Lag,而且转嫁给消费者的会影响竞争能力,尤其是饮食业。

- 公司70%的产品都是出口的,同时80%的原料是进口的。汇率的浮动会直接冲击公司的赚幅和价格竞争力目前公司没有做太多的Hedging,大多属于Natural Hedging。

总结
贸易战,华为事件,油价滑落,美联储加息,美国政治动荡局面等负面因数导致2018年下半年的股市除了波动还是波动,很多投资者对股市都都少了份安全感,纷纷套现保持观望态度或者把资金转向业务较为稳定的公司,希望找到“避风港”。而Johotin本事的生意业务是生活必须品(Necessity),对于市场的动荡有一定的免疫,加上净现金状况,可说是高防守性公司。但是面对原料价格的波动(造成2017财年盈利不理想的主因),很多时候还是有心无力,只能努力提高公司效率以保护赚幅和竞争能力。Johotin的P/E目前是11.76,比起同行Canone高。技术面方面,11月28日公布利好业绩后,股价一举冲破EMA 200生命线,还两度试探阻力RM 1.05但无功而返,目前回调到RM0.95 EMA 25和50附近徘徊。
此文章只供参考,不构成任何买卖建议,买卖自负。

Saturday, December 8, 2018

Karex AGM 2018 Highlights



Karex AGM 2018 Highlights

Difference Gloves vs Condom
Medical Classification
Class I Medical Devices
A Class I medical device are those devices that have a low to moderate risk to the patient and/or user. Today, 47% of medical devices fall under this category and 95% of these are exempt from the regulatory process. If a device falls into a generic category of exempted Class I devices, a premarket notification application and FDA clearance is not required before marketing the device in the U.S. However, the manufacturer is required to register their establishment and list their generic product with FDA. Examples include enema kits, elastic bandages, manual stethoscopes, and bedpans.

Class II Medical Devices
Class II medical devices are those devices that have a moderate to high risk to the patient and/or user. 43% of medical devices fall under this category. Most medical devices are considered Class II devices. Examples of Class II devices include powered wheelchairs and some pregnancy test kits.

Class III Medical Devices
Class III medical devices are those devices that have a high risk to the patient and/or user. These devices usually sustain or support life, are implanted, or present potential unreasonable risk of illness or injury. They represent 10% of medical devices regulated by the FDA. Examples of Class III devices include implantable pacemakers and breast implants

Gloves
Medical Classification – Class I
Manufacturing Process
1.       Dipping
2.       Boxing

-          Glove Manufacturers do not need to test all their products.
-          Instead, they do sampling to check for pinholes. If the glove passes the test, it can be used for medical purposes. Otherwise, it goes for general usage.
-          Glove Manufacturers can translate cost prices to customers every month.

Condom
Medical Classification – Class II
Manufacturing Process
1.       Dipping
2.       Testing
3.       Casing
4.       Boxing

-          For condoms, I can’t say that there are some holes on this one and the other is perfect, because there is only one usage for it. And you cannot say since the US is paying more, then I give them a better quality while for Africa, I give them all the rejects. So, each single condom must be tested and certified hole-free.
-          Because of its Medical Classification – Class II, any changes to the manufacturing process need to be validated.
-          Condom prices hardly change because of its competitiveness with other manufacturing player
-          Price Celling from certain countries

Competitive Advantage
Various Sizing
Bespoke “Perfect fit” condoms with variations of 10 lengths, nine widths and 60 sizes.
To make sure one fits, customers only need to download an online ruler called “FitKit”, measure and enter their size to the website to get the size code.
Other Player: 2-3 Sizes

Automation

2021 plan to switch 80% processes to Automation
20% is automated currently, 40% Manpower are from Testing Segment, had cut down approx. 300 employees, aim to cut down to approx. 1500 employees, currently stands at approx. 2800 employees.

Labour Cost 

21% Labour Cost are expecting a drop till 10-12% easily after 2021 automation
Other Player: 90% Manual Processes

Flexibility
Karex builds its own machines in order to have the flexibility advantages in production. Able to weld and build own machines in-house cope with customer demands.

Latex Compounding
Form Karex Polymers Limited (Thailand)

Karex is improving latex processes in-house to optimize latex volatile prices, storage of latex during wintering month.


Innovation

Ultra-thin technology able to compete with other players who having thin condoms.
Players in Industry
Guangzhou Daming United Rubber Products – World thinnest Latex Condom “Aoni” 0.035-0.039 millimeters
Sagami Rubber Industries – World thinnest Polyurethane condom “Sagami 001” 0.013-0.019 millimeters (yet to compete)

Yearly Capex: RM20million
Last 5 years, mainly on facilities, and automation.
Moving 5 years, mainly focusing on automation


Risk
USD Low
Brent Oil High
Latex Price High
Silicon Oil High
Licensing fees of OBM listing in new countries
Client need at least 1-2 Years for new product listing and certification

Challenge
2018 USD sliding from 4.3-3.9 vs MYR
2018 Brent Oil went up from USD 40-70 per barrel
2018 Latex Price volatile between RM6-RM4 per kg
2018 Silicon Oil USD 4.5-7.5
Tender
Tender to Institutional buyers such as United Nation Population Fund (UNFPA), United State Agency for International Development (USAID), Population Service International (PSI), Marie Stopes International (MSI), John Snow Inc (JSI) and Crown Agents International Limited




Currently Tender Business covering 50% of the business looking to continue slides in future mainly due to Global Government cutting spending on HIV Prevention, to reserve and invest in own country.

Commercial
Manufacture condoms for customers such as Ansell Limited (Lifestyle brand), Reckitt Benkiser, PLC (Durex brand), Line One Laboratories Inc, (Trustex brand)
Consolidation in the industry is being seen, as a lot small players are throwing condom prices to have healthy balance sheet and wait for big players acquiring.


OBM

Manufacture condoms under own brands namely “Carex”, “INNO” and “One”.
Current: 15% Revenue
Target: 30% Revenue by 2022
Main Market : US, UK
Current profit still breakeven, and will not have any in near 1-2 years, Karex is looking at branding, awareness, footprint across the world as the world is moving to discountal modal, supermarket tends to only reserve 2-3 Condom brands in their supermarkets.
Launched new flavor “Nasi Lemak”, “Teh Tarik” and etc past few months, and had been receive a lot of awareness, “Free Marketing with cheap cost”. The cost of “Nasi Lemak” flavor is only RM50,000 hence, it boost its brand awareness throughout social media, newspaper, blogs.
Karex is tapping on global social media trend to engage Social Media Influencer as ambassador such as “Jinnyboy”, “Namewee” and etc.
Karex own brand “One” is saving costing by using online platform by having own online store, and listed in Taobao.com, Amazon.com and coming up in Walmart.com


Opportunity

There are still many countries to penetrate into for their OBM.
Asian market has a focus on thickness, preferring their condoms to feel as au naturel as possible. But North American markets, don’t mind sacrificing a little thickness in the name of safety.


Lubricants

Karex is transforming from a condom-centric business into a broader sector called “sexual wellness”.
While condoms remain as the company’s main revenue generator, Karex is expanding into other medical products such as lubrication gels, probe covers and catheters.

Manufacturing

Current production: 5 Billion
To produce six billion condoms by next year and one key element to achieving that is automation in its manufacturing plants.


Some Questions and Answers from Shareholders
Why “One” Brand?
Unique young brand, young customer based, they never go to advertisement and newspaper for marketing, we are using crowd sourcing strategy on our online platform to allow customers to vote, request their flavors, size and etc. We had our own marketing and designer hence we save a lot cost from marketing perspective, it is more costly when entering new market (licensing, certification and listing). We are tapping into online shopping platform like Taobao, Amazon and Walmart in near future.

Plans to improve OBM Bottomline
Currently no profits and breaking even, it’s the tender business pulling the profits down, for the last 25 years we are doing great in OEM and Tender but the trend is OBM in the next 10 years, supermarkets are using discountal modal, which means 20,000 skus they are shrinking to 5,000 SKU’s only 2-3 brands of condom they are allow in the supermarkets. We will not see any profit for the next 1-2 years from the OBM, for short term profit boost, maybe with our latex operational efficiency, USD higher, Brent Oil are going down, Latex price are sliding, more automation from our end, new ultra-thin products, we can produce same 003 as okamoto, these might see our profit increase for short term. In fact, only Karex is able to produce up to 60 sizes of condom while the others are normally 3, with the ultra-thin production, we can sell up to USD 0.06c / condom.

Any share buyback plans for company? As seen some shareholder had done some share buy back and some had also sold, can elaborate further on how CEO see about the company future is it under or over value currently and with current price will the company do some share buyback, also seen your cash is considerable.
We do not have any share buyback plans in fact, most of the cash is for expansion plan as we are still yet to utilizes, those funds will be mad at us why not using for expansion but a share buyback.

How the company spends the cash, there is significant decrease of 40m vs last year 86m?
Our yearly capex is at approx. 20m a year, we spend on upgrading to automation and setting new facilities like Thailand, Karex Polymer, our R&D a year is at 1.5-2m, we paid dividends 0.05 cents, and we bought another 20% of global protection for 7.5m, however we are still at healthy state as our company loans gearing are at 0.07 which is super low, there is still a lot banks facilities which are yet to be used, we have approx. 150m ready, and there is still 120m yet to be used. Some of the cash are actually at inventory as there is 1 large shipment is still at the ports awaiting government to check and will shipped out, this also affect why our Q1 profits are less, because this shipment hasn’t been shipped out. Karex results actually cannot be judge by quarterly Q1 and Q2 sales are normally higher, shipment delays do happen sometime due for government checking and also because some government spends before year end December when our financial end at June.

Side Information
-          Condom Material
Polyurethane – is less flexible than latex, it’s going to be more prone to breakage
Polyisoprene – ultra-thin, allergy-free, natural rubber, stretch much more, recover their original shape after being stretched, soft feeling.
Latex – Normal condom material
-          Results
Q1 (July-Sept) and Q2 (Oct-Dec) is higher compare to Q3 (Jan-Mar) and Q4 (Apr-Jun), government normally buys before year end December to utilize their remaining funds.
Karex results is not Recommend to view as quarterly, due to timing of product listing, licensing, shipment and certification.
-          Cost /condom
Normal Condom USD 0.03
Ultra-Thin (0.035-0.039 millimeters) USD 0.06
-          Acquisitions market
The company has made five acquisitions — US-based Line One Laboratories Inc and the UK’s Pasante Healthcare Ltd, among others, for US$8 million and £6 million (RM33.66 million) respectively.
These companies were bought not only for the condom brands, but for their distribution advantages as well. For instance, Pasante has a strong presence in retail and tender via its distribution system in every National Health Service (NHS) in the UK.
“Distribution is very important. You need to knock on their store and have a relationship with any particular NHS clinics to buy products from them,” he said.
For Line One, Karex acquired intellectual properties including the trademarks, patents and Food and Drug Administration approvals to market and distribute condoms under the established brands of Trustex, Kameleon and Fantasy in the US.
The company will buy the balanced 30% of Global Protection Corporation before June 2020, they are suggesting share swap in between.
-          Impressions on CEO
CEO presented an impressive presentation without any stress after results are declining for the past 1-2 years, in fact, more than 3 shareholders actually praise his attitude, calmness and confidence in his presentation to let shareholder know the company is in right track and CEO knowing the company well. 


文章只供参考,不构成买卖建议,买卖自负。




Sunday, December 2, 2018

Supermax 2018 AGM摘要


Supermax 2018 AGM的摘要

手套业务
-全球手套需求殷切,橡胶手套领域持续录得常年8至10%增长,今年全球手套消费量则有望扩大至2460亿只。  
- 市场占有率12%。
- 将专注重建和替换现有生产效率不佳的旧设施来提高效率和产能,时积极扩张产量。
- 朝向工业4.0自动化工厂。创办人郑金森举例曾参观新加坡相识工厂,其运作需要300名员工,而自身的自动化工厂只需60名员工。
- 产量为240亿只,未来2年投资3亿令吉来提升产能20%至290亿只。
- 现有超过140英亩土地可满足未来扩充寻求。 
- 目前的gearing只有0.28,表示还有很大的空间贷款扩充,但表示维持在0.75x gearing以下。 
- 基于手套商纷纷增产,可能出现Supply Glut的情况,Albert SayChuan Cheok(Non-Executive Independent Chairman)表示有在“暗示”同行不要大量增产,会免破坏市场的平衡。但也表示适当地增产是健康的,表示各公司正准备产能迎接更高的需求。
- 原料方面
Latex
主要取自马来西亚和泰国,偶尔印尼
Nitrile 
60%马来西亚
40% 台湾和韩国


隐形眼镜业务


隐形眼镜CAGR 6.7%
-旗下品牌Aveo Hello已在65个国家出售
-目前以E-commerce方式销售 (各个地区如美国和日本已经开始,马来西亚上个月开始),相信陆续会看到Aveo的广告。

-接下来会注重提高各国市场参透率, 扩大产能与产品种类,其中包括硅胶隐形眼镜、散光隐形眼镜和彩装型隐形眼镜。地区方面则专注于刚拿到执照的日本市场。
- 市场定位 “Good quality with affordable price",可参考Aveo网页
- 问及是否能顺利进军中国庞大市场,Albert 表示需要较长的时间,因为中国程序上较为复杂(较Bureaucratic)但进度已经超过50%,希望2019会有好消息。
- 产量已从初期的4000万片增至7000万片,一旦中国执照入袋,产量可能飙增至2亿5000万片,更有望在长期达到10亿片目标。
-Albert也表示有信心可与隐形眼镜Big4品牌竞争。


管理层
- 大多数管理层都是1992至1997年间进入公司,至少有10 年经验。 
- 由于公司掌托人Datuk Seri Stanley Thai Kim Sim和Datin Seri Cheryl Tan Bee Geok还在处理本身的法律案件,2018稍微整顿了管理层人马。
- 2018年1月Cecile Jaclyn Thai和Tan Chee Keong 被委任为Executive Director。
2018年10月委任Albert SayChuan Cheok为Chairman, Non-Executive Independent Chairman。小编认为此人的来头不小,认为对公司接下来的发展会有很大的影响。

感想
Supermax属于家庭企业。创办人Stanley Thai访问时曾说过“I build this business for my next generation.",猜测他做的决定都会从这个出发点考虑。在AGM时,Stanley Thai也不忘向股东们介绍两个女儿Cecile(目前是Executive Director)和Aurelia,还很自豪地告诉大家其手套品牌Aurelia就是以幼女的名字命名,可见对她们疼爱有加。在最近的管理层变动也看得出在为下一代铺路。
而小编认为刚刚入伍的Albert SayChuan Cheok就是事先安排好的军师,凭着在金融的丰富经验和多年的战绩,可为集团稳着阵脚。谈吐像Chinese Businessman风格的他在AGM时都有问必答,但是面对一些股东追问数据问题时,时不时还是需要助手提供数据。毕竟他说只要把事情做好,亮眼的数据自然会发生。可说他是不拘小节?还是对公司的数据还未熟悉呢?一切还有待验证也值得关注。

此文章只供参考,并非买卖建议,请买卖自负。

Friday, November 30, 2018

业绩大跌,KESM迎来寒冬了吗?


进入主题前,先让我们了解
KESM在半导体的价值供应链(Value Chain)中扮演着什么角色。

半导体的价值供应链
半导体领域是个全球性的价值供应链,首先是R&D产品研发,过后Fabless Company会跟着R&D的新概念设计构思产品,接下来Foundries会根据构思制作出晶片。由于半导体属极度敏感物体,制造过程稍微的出错都会导致成品不及格。为了达到无瑕疵,每颗晶片都必须经过测试,这就造就了OSAT(如大家熟悉的Inari)。过后,晶片会交到OEM/ODM组装和生产,再交到Brand Owner卖给消费者。那KESM就是属于OSAT


KESM公司简介
- 世界上最大的独立半导体Burn-in and Test测试公司
-
主要测试汽车领域的晶片
-
拥有强劲的现金流 (Quality of Earning), Net Cash公司
- 40
年经验
-
最大股东是新加坡的Sunright Limited
-
世界前10Semiconductors公司中,有5家是KESM客戶,其中之一是汽車Semiconductors龙头NXP Semiconductors(也是主要顾客),足见该公司在全球市場竞争能力。
-根据执行主席林信賜的说法,
KESM目前并沒有相近的竞争对手。而汽车电子零件关系到驾驶者的安全,各大车商格外重视,只向信誉良好的供应商取货。
-近年来,汽车革命崛起,人们对汽车的安全,性能,娱乐功能的要求越来越高,
车商也更积极地研发和推出3种汽车-电子车、混合动力车及自动行驶车。所以汽车需要的晶片会越来越多。这就带动了KESM的业绩,20132017财年间的净利CAGR高达76.15%,股价一度从RM4涨到RM 21.00 
- 值得注意的是整体的半导体市场已经成熟,接下来会以较慢的速度成长,(至2020年的CAGR将维持在3%),但是汽车领域的半导体的成长明显高于其他领域,至2020年汽车领域半导体的CAGR8.9 %

业绩开倒车
虽然前景明朗,但是从2018Q3起连续3个季度,KESM的业绩持续下跌,最新季度2019Q1的盈利更跌了77%,股价也回吐之前涨幅,回到RM 8左右。
-
影响业绩的罪魁祸首是晶圆(Wafer)短缺,晶圆(Wafer)是制作半导体的主要原料。原料的短缺和其价钱的走高影响了整个半导体的供应链,冲击了KESM的业绩。读者可参考以下视频了解晶圆(Wafer)到晶片的制造过程。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWVywhzuHnQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5paWn7bFg4

2017年起, 晶圆(Wafer)短缺问题已经慢慢地在发酵。KESM称这属于短期的Disruption。但是无可否认,接下来的业绩并不会有太大的惊喜,因为其工厂的Utilization Rate预计会下跌。那KESM几时才能恢复曾经的辉煌呢?一起去探讨问题的根源吧。

晶圆(Wafer)短缺问题
目前晶圆的短缺是属于Demand-drive的短缺。主要是因为数据中心(Data Centers)和电动汽车的崛起而导致半导体需求走高。甚至有人坦言汽车领域的半导体已经进入超级周期(Super Cycle),超过普通的产品周期(35年)供应方面,TOP 3 晶圆的供应商Shin Etzu, Sumco,Global Wafer都表态会逐渐但避免大量增产,以避免Supply Glut,冲击市场平衡。
同时,Digitimes Research报告指出,晶圆的average selling price (ASP) per square inch已经涨到USD 0.86, 2013年以来最高,更推断2019年未会涨到USD 1200mm(汽车领域常用)300mm晶圆短缺预计会维持到至少2020年,2020年后则视需求而定。所以目前的晶圆市场正属于Seller Market所以KESM面对的原料短缺问题不会瞬间获得解决,接下来的过度期避免不了。参考以下新闻。


总结
小编认为原料短缺问题是外围因数,并非公司内部或竞争力的问题。而且原料短缺是Demand Driven,就是需求过高导致的,长期对KESM涉及的领域来说并非是一件坏事。晶圆市场目前属于SupplyDemand的调整期。为了应变,KESM本身也将一些Capex延迟。基于公司的强劲金流和健康资产负债表,相信公司有能力度过接下来的过度期。这一点可从公司派息的能力看得出(2018财年派出18.50仙历史最高的股息)。股价方面,利空因数导致大幅度调整,静观其变为上策。


此文章只供参考,不构成任何买卖建议,买卖自负。